Art Market 2025: Why Growth at the Lower End Is Redefining the Industry

After a year of muted auction results, cautious fair sales, and mounting economic uncertainty, the headline from this year's report came as little surprise: the global art market contracted by 12% in 2024, falling to $57.5 billion. But beneath that headline lies a more layered story. While overall value declined, transactional activity increased - up 3% year-on-year to 40.5 million individual sales.

“We are at the doorstep of a new regime of trade regulations,” warned Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Global Equities, UBS Global Wealth Management. “The last time the U.S. imposed tariffs at this level was at the start of the Great Depression.” Her stark assessment captured the growing unease surrounding the U.S. art market, as newly proposed global tariffs raise concerns far beyond cost alone. “It’s not just about financial costs,” she added, “it’s the uncertainty that freezes investment.”

Even if artworks are not directly targeted, the panel made clear that the ripple effects - disrupted logistics, rising shipping costs, and tightening compliance - could reshape how, where, and even whether art is bought and sold. As global trade friction escalates, the very infrastructure that supports the high end of the market could face meaningful disruption.

The panel wasn’t without glimmers of optimism. While acknowledging the uncertainty ahead, Art Basel CEO Noah Horowitz struck a steady, forward-looking tone: “We’re all operating in unprecedented times. The best advice is to take a deep breath and take stock of things as they unfold - because as quickly as things shift, they can evolve just as fast.” That tempered outlook echoed throughout the discussion, especially in conversations around generational wealth transfer and the slow, but steady, emergence of a new wave of collectors.

Horowitz noted that Art Basel Hong Kong saw a strong turnout, with attendance rising to 91,000 in 2024 - an increase of 10,000 from the previous year. On the fair floor, he observed a marked influx of new faces: “There was a large new audience - and they are buying,” he said. While some are beginning to engage at higher levels of the market, he acknowledged it’s still too early to gauge their long-term impact.

Hoffmann-Burchardi pointed to the urgency of onboarding new collectors, particularly as a major generational wealth transfer looms. But rather than one sweeping shift, she framed the evolution as a confluence of trends: more family-inclusive collecting, a stronger presence and purchasing power of women, and a rising emphasis on research-driven acquisitions. Together, these changes signal a new generation of collectors - more intentional, more informed, and ultimately, more resilient.

“What matters is how we use it,” said Horowitz, capturing the art world’s evolving relationship with digital tools. As Dr. McAndrew added, “Over the last few years, the biggest change has been the move from fairs to online. Fairs have come back somewhat, but what’s emerging is a different structure - with both channels playing important roles.” While Horowitz expressed optimism about Art Basel’s 2025 edition, the panel acknowledged that a more complex, hybrid model is taking shape. A digital-first mindset is increasingly running alongside the return of physical fairs, demanding fresh strategies from both dealers and organisers to meet collectors where they are - whether online or in person.

This evolution is playing out at the gallery level, too, as dealers rethink how they engage collectors in a shifting landscape. “We’ve stayed focused on our artists and collectors, but we’re also being cautious,” said Steve Henry of Paula Cooper Gallery, noting that while online sales surged during the pandemic, they now represent only a small slice of total gallery revenue. Still, he sees clear long-term potential in digital channels - particularly when it comes to reaching younger, tech-savvy buyers.