Market Watch: Market Editor Report July 2024
Pop Shop I, Plate III © Keith Haring 1987
Joe Syer, Co-Founder & Specialist Headjoe@myartbroker.com
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Key Takeaways
The July 2024 art market is navigating significant changes following the Labour Party's election victory, which may bring new tax implications, particularly affecting wealthy collectors in the upper-tier market. This sector has shown signs of weakening, with potential new capital gains taxes discouraging sales. In contrast, the middle market remains stable, bolstered by online sales platforms and increased interest in more accessible artworks like Andy Warhol's prints. This shift, coupled with Gen Z buyers favouring lower-risk investments, suggests a continued focus on the middle market, while the high-end segment may face further challenges in the coming months.
The art market in July has been shaped by the recent election, with the Labour Party's success potentially bringing new tax implications for the art trade. As the first of the summer months marks the beginning of the auction season, it offers a chance to analyse the first half of the year's performance against previous years. As we look ahead to the autumn fairs and marquee auction sales, these trends will be crucial for understanding the overall art market calendar.
Art Market Outlook for H2 2024
As we move into the second half of 2024, the art market is facing several key challenges. The recent victory by the Labour Party in the July election is expected to significantly impact the art trade, particularly regarding anticipated tax increases. This could heavily affect the wealthiest collectors who dominate the upper-tier market, where high-value artworks often sell for millions. Exiting 2023 and concluding H1 2024, the top end of the market continues to show signs of weakening, potentially leading to further declines in sales. Collectors might hesitate to sell, as potential new capital gains tax (CGT) liabilities could diminish their returns.
Stability in the Middle Market Segment
In contrast to the slowdown at the upper end, the middle segment of the art market is showing more stability, a trend also observed in 2023. This segment, along with the growth of online-only auctions, representing nearly half of the total lots sold and 10% of total value according to ArtTactic, caters to more cost-conscious buyers, potentially avoiding the high impacts of CGT. This includes experienced collectors exploring different mediums, which may explain the rising interest in print sales.
Andy Warhol’s market is a prime example, with increased demand for Complete Sets and Trial Proofs that offer unique colour variations. These segments in the print market provide collectors with portfolio diversification, a secure investment in a blue chip artist, and more accessible price points in the hundreds of thousands to low millions, as opposed to the higher valuations of original canvases in the upper tier.
The middle market also presents a more accessible entry point for Gen Z buyers, who tend to be financially cautious and sensitive to market fluctuations. Gen Z buyers are particularly noteworthy in today's art market landscape. As this emerging demographic continues to gain influence, they are likely to strengthen the middle market, favouring investments with lower tax implications and reduced volatility. This trend signals a shift away from high-priced, high-risk trophy pieces, as collectors prioritise more accessible and stable investment opportunities.
Download The Andy Warhol Report: Complete Sets & Trial Proofs
H1 2023/2024 Prints & Editions Auction Performance © MyArtBroker H1 2024 Print Auctions Review
To gain better insights into current art market trends, we've specifically reviewed public auction sales focused on prints and editions. Please note, this analysis does not include prints sold in other marquee auctions throughout the year. We’ve gathered auction data from H1 2024 across Christie's, Sotheby's, Phillips, and Bonhams within the Post-War and Contemporary categories. While these sales are down compared to the same sales in H1 2023, the results offer a nuanced picture:
- Total print sales in H1 2023: £45.2 million (19% above the low presale estimate) across 8,715 lots with an 84% sell-through rate.
- Total print sales in H1 2024: £28.7 million (just 1% above the low presale estimate) across 21 sales with an 80% sell-through rate.
- While the overall hammer total is down 37%, the market has shown resilience, particularly in the middle segment, where demand remains stable, supported by a 57% increase in online sales.
- Unsold lots increased by 10%, and the number of works sold above their high estimate saw a significant drop of 43%.
H1 2023/2024 Prints & Editions Auction Performance © MyArtBroker 
Auction House Performance
In terms of individual auction house performance:
- Christie's saw the most substantial decline in hammer total, down 55%, partially due to holding two fewer sales.
- Sotheby's performance remained stable, although it had the highest increase in unsold lots, up 122% from 2023, with a total hammer turnover of £6.3 million.
- Phillips added one live and one online sale, seeing increased success in lots sold within and below estimates but facing challenges with lots sold above estimates.
- Bonhams shifted strategy, hosting more online sales (seven compared to three live events), adapting to the evolving market landscape.
As the year progresses, monitoring these dynamics will be crucial in predicting market trends and understanding where opportunities lie, particularly as the market continues to adapt to changing economic conditions.
Joe Syer, Co-Founder & Specialist Headjoe@myartbroker.com
Interested in buying or selling
an artwork?
Market Reports
